Weekend Wager: PLL Week 5

The PLL Weekend Wager is back and I’m coming in hot this week! I have picks on every game and explain my rationale below. Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@BiagiBrandon) where I post all my plays during the week to secure the best odds before they move. I’ve tried to address relevant line movement in this article, but feel free to tweet at me with questions.

All plays are to risk one unit unless otherwise noted. This means I bet one unit on every play, regardless of the juice. If my unit size is $100, I bet $100 whether the juice is -110, -150, +135, etc.

Waterdogs -1.5 vs. Whipsnakes | O/U 23.5

Pick: UNDER 23.5 +100

As I enjoyed my four-unit weekend on Sunday night, I looked forward to this coming weekend to see if anything jumped out at me. When I saw this matchup, I remembered cashing two under tickets on this matchup last year. It was only until I opened up my excel sheet bet tracker that I learned I actually cashed THREE under tickets on this matchup in 2022 (two game lines and one first half line.) Furthermore, my research uncovered that every Whips-Dogs match since 2021 has gone under for a perfect 5-0. Total goals have been 21, 21, 23, 24 and 17, with the 24-goal match going under the set total of 24.5.

I believe that head-to-head matchup trends can indicate a style of play between two teams. Think about some of your favorite rivalries in other sports. There are some teams that you know when they get together it will either be a slugfest or a shootout. This is due to a combination of emotions from matchup history, strengths and weaknesses, and general playing styles. This Whips-Dogs matchup fits the bill for a good, old-fashioned slugfest and I love playing this under at even money.

Archers -1.5 vs. Redwoods | (O/U) 23.5

Pick: Archers ML -122 (2 Units)

Archers moneyline – the line so nice you hit it twice. We may have a matchup of two 3-1 teams facing off, but I am here to tell you that one of these teams is good and the other one is bad. Think 2022 Minnesota Vikings: nice story, nice record, not going anywhere.

Let’s use numbers to put this into perspective. The Archers have the league’s MOST efficient offense and second-MOST efficient defense. The Redwoods have the league’s second-LEAST efficient offense and the league’s LEAST efficient defense. Polar opposites.

Efficiency in lacrosse is calculated by the number of times a team scores divided by the number of possessions they have. Think of this equation as I make matters worse for the Woods’ defense that allows the most goals per possession. Archers are third in overall possessions and second in total shots. These bears are gonna be teddy bears this week.

Pick: Ryder Garnsey UNDER 4.5 Points +114

Ryder Garnsey is one of the most exciting players to watch. He scores in ways you can’t even pull off in the backyard. He leads the league in points and goals, but I predict his productivity to regress just a hair this week due to the matchup against a stout defense and an all-star goalie. I just told you how lopsided I believe this game could be. Five points such a high bar to hit for any player, and we are getting plus money for him to go under.

Cannons -1.5 vs. Chrome | (O/U 23.5)

Pick: Chrome +1.5 -145

This is a classic “buy low (Chrome), sell high (Cannons).” Two games ago, Chrome were upset by this very Cannons team, 14-13. Last week, Chrome got worked by the Waterdogs. The final score was 10-7, but the Dogs had a 7-1 lead at half. If they kept their foot on the gas, it could have been really ugly. These are games that will fire a team up. If you’re on Chrome and you have any sense of pride, you are coming out guns blazing next week to erase these back to back embarrassments. And who better to turn it around against than a team that just beat you?

Revenge is on the menu this Saturday.

On the flip side, Cannons have been the PLL darling, already eclipsing their 2022 win total in less than half a season. Last week, they gassed a struggling Atlas team 19-12. A 9-1 second quarter put them ahead and they never had to look back. The matchup this week is one team that wants revenge on a recent head to head embarrassment, and one desperately needs a win to save the season, versus another team that is already playing with house money this year.

Motivation edge: Chrome.

The statistics will also tell you that Chrome are the more efficient team on both sides of the ball. They rank fourth in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. Cannons rank fifth and second-to-last in these categories, respectively.

Settled advantage: Chrome.

The battle at the stripe will be an interesting case study. Last week, Waterdogs created a possession advantage by not dressing a faceoff specialist and daring Connor Farrell to beat them with his stick skills – a risk that paid off. This week, Cannons chose to sit struggling faceoff specialist, Bones Kelly, and deploy the same strategy. I’ve been waiting for Cannons to go this route all season. However, Chrome have had all week to draw up new faceoff plays and strategies to combat this. There should be no element of surprise here.

What I would like to see is Chrome use offensive and two-way middies on the wings and even in the backfield in place of a close defender for a quick flip and sub when Farrell wins the draw backwards. Get it out of his stick and into the crosse of someone who can make a play in 32 seconds going the other way. If Chrome come ill-prepared to continue the 2023 PLL faceoff chess-match, you can throw in the towel for their season, and egg on my face.

Pick: OVER 23.5 -115

Your 2023 Cannons are an OVER team. Their games are 4-for-4 going OVER the set total this year. This is due to their electric offense and lethargic defense. They allow 13.75 goals per game in 2023. In 2022, the only team that allowed more than 13.75 goals per game was your 1-9 Cannons at 14 goals allowed per game. In 2021, no team allowed more than 13.75 goals per game, and the team in last? You guessed it: Cannons at 13.3. If you have a pulse, you’re getting buckets on this team.

On the other side, the Cannons score the most points per game in the PLL at 14.75 per game. Chrome’s defense is performing worse than last year due to injuries/missed games, and sloppy play by Goalie Sean Sconone. Sconone has just eight clean saves all year. This is the same amount as Cannons goalie, Colin Kirst, who has played a game and a half less than Sconone. My point? This Chrome defense can be had and they are facing the top scoring offense. The highest total we’ve seen set by the books this year was 24.5 and this game is set at 23.5 -115 to go over? Consider it a gift from FanDuel to your wallet. (I would take this at 24.5 too though.)

Picks: Justin Anderson OVER 1.5 Points -120, Sam Handley OVER 1.5 Points +150

I bet two player props in this game and they are both Chrome midfielders to go over 1.5 Points. I chose both Sam Handley and Justin Anderson. They are legitimate two-point threats, so it only takes one shot for them to clear this number for us. Plus, they are both well-rounded offensive midfielders who can hit singles and pass the ball to stuff the stat sheet. They both will see tremendous offensive volume, as Chrome only rosters seven offensive players on gameday, and six offensive players play on each possession. Oh, and they are playing against Cannons’ swiss cheese defense. We cashed this exact bet for Justin Anderson in Week 1, and I was hustling to the counter to place it again for both him and Handley.

Atlas -1.5 vs. Chaos | (O/U 23.5)

Pick: Chaos +1.5 -150

This is a tail of Pro Lacrosse Talk and Bet On Lacrosse contributor Brian Andrews (@swerdnanairb on Twitter). I was so moved by his rationale during our Bet On Lacrosse Twitter Space (link below), that I had to put my own money on it. I just explained how historically bad Cannons defense was at 13.75 goals per game allowed, right? The Atlas are allowing a staggering 15.5 goals per game average! This would be the worst defense in PLL history.

The cherry on top for Chaos fans? Atlas have allowed the most goals and the highest shooting percentage off two-man game initiation. Chaos strength is Atlas weakness… and we are getting a point of insurance! This deal was too good to pass up.

Those are my picks this week! 8 winners to help you enjoy another action-packed PLL Weekend. Tell me what you’re betting on or where you think I’m smart/dumb in the comments or on Twitter @BiagiBrandon.

You can also listen to my thoughts and the sweet sounds of Dan Neubert, Hutton Jackson and Brian Andrews on the Bet On Lacrosse Twitter Space below.