Weekend Wager: PLL Semifinals

We have a Premier Lacrosse League playoff edition of the Weekend Wager, for the PLL Semifinals! Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@BiagiBrandon) where I post all my plays during the week to secure the best odds before they move.

Whipsnakes (-1.5) vs. Waterdogs

We start with the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend. The top-seeded Whipsnakes play the only team to hand them a loss all season. These teams played twice before the All Star Break and while things have changed since, these are two important data points we will reference.

In the first meeting, the Dogs jumped out to a 6-1 lead in just the second quarter before suffering injuries to faceoff specialist Jake Withers and defenseman Chris Sabia. These injuries forced Zach Currier to take faceoffs (and virtually eliminate him from the other phases of the game) and knock the Dogs down legs during a hot June night in Charlotte. The Whips were subsequently able to dominate the stripe, gain possessions and hit singles. They tired out the Dogs defense and were slowly able to climb back to a 12-11 OT victory.

In the second meeting, the Dogs jumped out to another early lead and closed the first quarter at 3-0. Again, the Dogs were shooting early and often, forcing the Whips out of their comfort zone and playing track meet ball. This time, Waterdogs held on to win 11-10, handing the Whips their only loss of the season.

This game is bound to be a close one, and twice we saw the blueprint of how to frustrate the Whipsnakes. I’ll be following a couple trends we saw in both games. In both games, we saw the Dogs lead at halftime (6-3 and 5-3). I’ll be taking them to win the first half on the moneyline at +120 on DraftKings. Taking the Dogs +0.5 (-105) would be a less risky version of this and a good look as well.

We’ve also seen both matchups this season go under the first half total of 12.5 by 4.5 and 3.5 and we’ve see both matchups go under their respective full game totals (under 23.5 by 0.5 and under 24.5 by 3.5). The Whips are going to try to slow this game down and play to their strengths of defense, possessions at the stripe and “hit-singles” offense, so I’m expecting unders in both halves. I’ll also be watching the score in hopes of betting some live-unders. If there are a lot of goals on the board quickly, we could see the live total inflate and give us even more cushion for when the defenses lock in and lock down.

The player prop I love is Justin Guterding under 1.5 assists at -115 on DraftKings. Gutty has gone over this number just twice this season and neither were during the two games the Whips and Dogs have played. I’m expecting a low scoring game, so less points on the board in general. I find this line odd, because Gutty is not a primary initiator on the Whips offense. I’d argue he might not even be a top three initiator on just the Whips midfield unit (Smith, Channy, Cole). All signs point to under here.

I’ll also be keeping an eye on Keegan Khan’s point prop, which is currently at 1.5. Khan started four games at attack in place of Juicy Jay Carlson in the middle of the season. Khan’s first start was the second matchup against the Waterdogs – the loss. This was an extremely bizarre move by Stagnitta because, at the time, the Waterdogs were allowing the most doorstep shots and goals of any team in the league. In the first matchup, garbage king Jay Carlson had five goals and an assist. The Waterdogs have only tightened it up a tiny bit and are now second in doorstep shots and goals. Jay Carlson should be a needed X-factor for the Whips and get the start at attack. If he does, this means less touches for Khan and surely an under 1.5-point play for me. Khan has only surpassed 1.5 points twice in four starts at attack and zero times in all other games.

A game prop that I like is Whipsnakes most groundballs for -115 on DK. Pro Lacrosse Talk and Bet On Lacrosse contributor, Brian Andrews, pointed this one out on our Bet On Lacrosse Twitter space recording this week and I am all in. Joe Nardella should win the possession battle for the Whips and generate a number of groundballs for himself. Withers will need to make the faceoff battle sloppy in order to win, but this style allows four-time LSM of the year Michael Ehrhardt and company to get a shot at these GBs as well. The Dogs will also look to push transition and move the ball more, which is exposure for more turnovers than the possession conscious, hit-singles Whipsnakes. The Whips have won the GB battle in seven of their 10 games this year, and their style of play plus the matchup should make it easier for them to scoop the ball off the rug. DraftKings has both team’s odds at -115, so I’m viewing this as +EV long term play.

Picks: Under 24.5, Under 12.5 (1H), Waterdogs ML (1H), Justin Guterding Under 1.5 Assists, Whipsnakes Most Groundballs

Lean: Keegan Khan Under 1.5 Points

Archers (-1.5) vs. Chaos

I find this game to be the more volatile game of the weekend. You could tell me any outcome and I could reasonably see it happening:

• Over 23.5 – Chaos offense in Championship mode and Archers’ most efficient offense in the league going to work
• Under 23.5 – Blaze channeling his MVP energy and Chaos offense in a tight battle with Archers’s stout defensive unit – a unit that finished third in the league in defensive efficiency
• Archers -1.5 – Archers top offense works too quickly for a defensive unit that has allowed more shots than any team in the league
• Chaos Moneyline – While Chaos are battle tested together in both outdoor and indoor, the Archers have yet to withstand the pressure and expectations and advance to the PLL finals

This list could continue on and on. While we are gambling, there are teams and matchups that I feel like I have a good handle on.

This is not one of them.

In the last Chaos-Archers matchup, we saw a lot of factors go the Chaos way: Blaze had a 19-save masterpiece, while Ghitelman had just six saves. Patrick Resch put a highlight hit on a still-injury-recovering Grant Ament in the first quarter and Ament took just one shot afterward.

Even with these factors, the Archers won and covered 11-8. It takes more than MVP goalie play from Blaze, a half asleep Ghitelman and a hit and dazed Ament to cover against the Archers. It will take a better defensive and offensive effort from the Chaos….which is exactly what we saw when they demolished the 7-3 two seed Chrome this past weekend. I’m not touching the game lines here.

I do, however, have two player props that I love. The first is the gift that keeps on giving: Ryan Ambler over 1.5 points. The juice is -150, but he’s hit in seven of 11 games this year including the last 4 in a row. One of these four was a three-goal, 10-shot performance in the Archers 11-8 win vs. Chaos. The Chaos had virtually knocked out Ament and shorted Manny and Holman, forcing the middies to create. You probably don’t want to force Captain America and friends to be aggressive, as Schreiber and Ambler had eight of Archers’ 11 goals.

The next player prop I love is Will Manny under 3.5 points. Manny was an early season MVP candidate after going for 17 points in his first three games, blowing by this total in all three games. Since then, Manny has passed this total just once with a six-point performance against the last place, worst defense Cannons on July 24. In the later part of the season, Manny has been spending more time running out of the box and Connor Fields has been getting starts on the lefty attack wing. Fields is more willing to create off the dodge and has been getting Manny’s touches. The only rationale I can understand for the line would be that if you average Manny’s points this season, he averages 3.3 points per game – close to the 3.5 line. However, a lot of these points came from the first three games, and Manny hasn’t even been playing the same position since. Seems like a computer number and we’ll use situational knowledge to make the play.

Picks: Ryan Ambler Over 1.5 Points, Will Manny Under 3.5 Points

Those are my picks for this week. Let me know what you’re betting on and be sure to check out the Bet On Lacrosse podcast for more PLL bets.