NLL Playoff Series Sneak Peek: How Have Teams Faired in Consecutive Matchups?

At the beginning of the season, the National Lacrosse League announced that for the 2021-22 season, the playoffs would feature three-game series starting in the second round. While the NLL Finals have featured a best-of-three series for the past several seasons, this will be the first time that an earlier round will feature a three-game series. Fans and even players have gone on record praising this change.

“I think it’s about time to be honest,” Jeff Shattler said on the Pro Lacrosse Talk Podcast. “I’m really happy that they’ve included a couple more games in playoffs because I truly believe we need that as a league…Game three. Do or die. It gives you that added umph.”

It makes sense why the change is welcomed: the highest and second lowest scoring slates per game happened in consecutive weeks, favorites are winning 68% of the time (down from 72% two weeks ago, but still two of every three games on average), and multiple teams have gone through serious and sporadic scoring droughts. Furthermore, four weeks have had a greater than or equal number of upsets as favorites winning and all have happened within the past 6 weeks.

Of course, anyone can win on any given weekend. Yet, the volatile scoring and the dominance of the top teams could leave single elimination playoffs feeling stale. Will being able to regroup give teams a better chance for upsets when it matters most? While the logical answer is yes, we can still look at some preliminary data from this season to see if that’s actually the case.

So far, six pairs of teams have played in two consecutive games: FireWolves and Swarm, Mammoth and Warriors, Mammoth and Rush, Mammoth and Roughnecks, Rock and Riptide, and Wings and Thunderbirds.* Some in the same weekend, some a week apart, and some with a larger gap between. The point is that a team leaves a game and plans for the same exact team for their next contest, which roughly mimics what the series format will entail.

_{*Thunderbirds played the Swarm between the two contests against the Wings but the Wings had a bye between. Ignoring these games would change the records to 1-4 for the first winning team so it is not biasing the data.}

So how has each “series” gone so far? How many would go to a third game? Have the difference in the standings between the teams been a large factor at the time of playing? To start answering these questions, I tallied the wins and losses of the second game for teams who won the first game. Teams who won the first game were 2-4 in the second game. So, four of the six “series” would have gone to a third game!

Placement in standings seemed to not matter all that much. The Albany FireWolves and Georgia Swarm are adjacent in the standings and traded games. Conversely, the Colorado Mammoth are farther up than the Saskatchewan Rush and Calgary Roughnecks, but traded games with them. The New York Riptide and Toronto Rock are almost complete opposites.

No team can be considered out in this series format, which is great for lacrosse fans. Although, no underdog has swept a favorite in a two-game series, no data about three consecutive games exists to lead to any kind of conjecture.

From a betting perspective, the lack of consistency from favorites in consecutive games could be leveraged in second or third games of playoff series, potentially by picking underdogs against the spread for the right line and right price or picking the favorite on the moneyline after a loss in the previous game.

A more compelling trend lies in the totals of these games. The cumulative score differential between second game and first in consecutive games is -40 and the average score differential is -6.67! The difference between the scores of the Colorado Mammoth and Vancouver Warriors contests is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, but all repeat contests so far have shown either no change or a decrease in the total number of goals scored. This is particularly important to keep in mind considering the books have been consistently setting most lines at either 21.5 or 22.5.

As the season goes on, the top teams are showing they are mortal. The Halifax Thunderbirds lost two in their most recent double-header weekend to the FireWolves (again) and the Swarm. This coming weekend (March 26-27) they are going up against the Buffalo Bandits twice, which is a very likely playoff scenario. The lines provided by DraftKings for these games are very tight. Thunderbirds are +1.5 underdogs for the first time all season! But the lines are set up such that you pay a higher price for +1.5 in the second game. The moneyline is +120 for the Thunderbirds and -150 in the Bandits favor in the first game, but an even -115 split in the second contest.

Totals for both contests are set at 20.5, which is as low as any book has set all season. This caused a double-take at first, but the Bandits and Thunderbirds are second and third in GAA respectively and the Thunderbirds are about average in scoring. I will wait for the outcome of first game, but if the Thunderbirds take the first matchup and the combined score is at most 23, I will personally be looking to grab Bandits -1.5 at +135 and the Under 20.5 at -105 in the second game based on the analysis of this article.

This weekend has more playoff implications than the just this matchup. The two-game and three-game winning streaks of the Rock and Swarm respectively put both teams right on the heels of the Thunderbirds. And, the Rock and the Swarm play each other! If Halifax loses both contests to the Bandits and the Swarm upset the Rock, the second, third and fourth spots in the standings are essentially tied. However, the Rock would take the second spot in the East with a win in this scenario. (This hyper-specific scenario ignores Halifax going 1-1, 2-0, and even the result of the FireWolves vs Riptide matchup, all of which can also lead to major swings in the standings.) While I don’t want to write a lengthy article about all possible scenarios this weekend leads to, it is very possible this will be the most important weekend for all of the Top 5 East Division teams this season.

Stay tuned for a follow up article where I talk about what adjustments teams employ that may help them stay in contention in a playoff series. All of the Mammoth scores are making me think goalie performances in the second game will play a huge role, especially after Dillon Ward’s 62-save performance against the Rush on February 26, 2022. I also am expecting to see defensive adjustments specific to an offensive scheme or player. So, if you enjoyed this short piece, keep an eye out for my follow-up in the future!