What a great start to the PLL season in a week one. While we saw our fair share of runaway games, we also saw some close contests and saw an outright win by an underdog in the Cannons 13-7 win over the Waterdogs. Before we dive into the week two board – which I’m admittedly not crazy about – here are some notes from the PLL’s opening weekend including my picks in last week’s Weekend Wager article.
- While the Redwoods are 2-0 overall, they are only 1-1 against the spread as they failed to cover the 1.5 in their opening night win over the Cannons.
- Speaking of the spread, the Cannons, despite being 1-1 overall, are 2-0 against the spread. Respect for them in the marketplace is clearly there, as they are only 1.5 underdogs in week two against a Whips team that hasn’t lost since 2019.
- The Archers got some major respect in the futures market following their 18-6 win over Atlas, which saw 11 different goal scorers help the Archers cruise to an easy victory. They now hold the second best odds to win the title at +340 (previously +450 before week one).
- Finally, we went 2-1 in our Weekend Wager plays, missing out on Chaos +2.5 – which never had a chance – while hitting on Archers -1.5 without a sweat and UNDER 24.5 goals in the Redwoods/Chrome tilt, despite thinking we had a bad beat in that one game – we’ll get to that in a second.
PLL Goal Totals
I have no official plays regarding the over/under totals, though, I will say I lean UNDER any total posted at 24.5 or higher (Cannons vs Whipsnakes, Atlas vs Redwoods, Archers vs Chaos). The main reason for the lean is because the way the totals are graded on DraftKings has me scratching my head.
Verbiage matters. Maybe even more so in sports betting than anywhere else because if you look closely at the posted totals, it does not read total POINTS scored, it reads total GOALS scored. So, I was lamenting my UNDER 24.5 play last week in the Woods-Chrome game when the game ended 14-11 only to find out later that my bet was graded as a winner.
Even though there were 25 total points scored in the game, there were only 24 total goals since one of the goals was a two-pointer from Sergio Perkovic. This would be like an NBA game being graded as an UNDER winner simply because there were a bunch of three-pointers. But hey, if it means we cashed our tickets last week, I wont be complaining. Time will tell if the books will change how they grade totals, but if not, bettors should have their calculators ready to double check their over/under plays.
PLL Game Spreads / Money Lines
One of my biggest sports betting mantras is that no team is as bad as they look, and no team is as good as they look. My first play this week lives up to both sides of that saying.
Sure, Redwoods came out of week one unscathed despite having 2 games, but as mentioned earlier, they failed to cover the 1.5 against the Cannons on opening night and were a tipped shot away from not covering the 2.5 against Chrome. On the other side line, we all see Atlas get absolutely shellacked by Archers, but I don’t know who would have kept up with an Archers team who looked like they were doing their best Hawkeye impression and simply could not miss.
As Atlas’ season continues, I expect players like Jake Carraway and Daniel Bucaro – who were college teammates at Georgetown – to find their chemistry and look a bit more respectable than they did in week one. While some may think I’m crazy, with the betting public all over the ‘Woods this week and my uncertainty in them against the spread, I’ll take a roll on ATLAS +2.5.
Week 2 Play: Atlas (+2.5) to cover against Redwoods (-2.5)
My other play for the week, outside of the ones you can hear on this week’s Bet On Lacrosse show, is all about the line moves. When the lines came out Monday evening for the week two slate, we saw the 0-1 (straight up and against the spread) Waterdogs open as 1.5 point favorites over the 0-1 (SU and ATS as well) Chaos. Yet, by early Tuesday morning, the Chaos were now laying the -1.5 against the ‘Dogs which has stayed steady all week long.
Honestly, I liked the Waterdogs even when they were -1.5 so I love getting the points instead against a Chaos team that looked out of sorts in all phases and is dealing with a pretty big distraction after an altercation over the weekend that left Austin Staats suspended by the league. Statistically, these teams were pretty similar in week one, identical in scores for and against. All these factors give me enough confidence to back the underdog WATERDOGS +1.5 Friday night.
Week 2 Play: Waterdogs (+1.5) to cover against Chaos (-1.5)
For more betting advice and opinions on every week two game, check out the Bet On Lacrosse podcast with Doug Greenberg and myself wherever you get your podcasts and as always – best of luck on your bets!
[…] As Dan Neubert explained in the Weekend Wager last week, DraftKings sets its totals based on “goals” scored, not “points.” If you saw the score in the fourth quarter (or listened to the broadcast) you’d assume the over had already hit with 7:31 left in the game. However, since five of the goals were two-pointers, the total remained under until Chris Cloutier’s garbage goal with 4.5 seconds left in the game. Talk about a close call. […]