It’s time for another PLL Weekend Wager! We nailed all of our picks last week, so let’s try to keep the momentum going following the PLL All-Star Game. Here are my thoughts on each game this weekend.
Redwoods vs. Atlas (-2.5)
First game back from the break and it feels great. While we, the fans, are excited for lacrosse, I fear the players might be slow to get back into the groove. As a bettor, I felt like we had such a good read on the flow and trends of each team, only to have it disrupted by a two-week hiatus. Two weeks to recharge and reset can change a lot for a team. For the Redwoods, it can be a turning point – a time to put the first half behind them and start new, refreshed.
On the other hand, the Atlas are carrying over an injury to MVP candidate, Trevor Baptiste. This means a possession imbalance in the favor of TD Ierlan and the Redwoods. The Redwoods operate with the slowest pace of play in the PLL. I see them getting possessions, getting their offensive guys on the field and attacking in 6-on-6. The Atlas are the opposite. They have the most fast break opportunities and the best fast break percentage, but this is due largely in fact to Baptiste. Without him, this game will slow down.
Baptiste also captained a PLL All-Star team where he and eight of his Atlas buddies beat Team Farrell by 20 goals. No typo – 20. I’m thinking that the Atlas might be riding high right now. Almost their whole starting lineup are all-stars and they just won a game against the league’s best by TWENTY. They haven’t had to scrap and claw for at least a few weeks and they might not be ready to fight from the opening whistle. This is an UNDER (23.5) play for me and +100 is a great price at Caesars.
I have a prop bet in this game as well – Bryan Costabile OVER 1.5 points (BetMGM). We’re taking advantage of a low number here. Costa has gone over this number in three of five games (60%) this season. All it takes in one two-bomb and we are there. Not to mention, during the PLL All-Star Game, Costa was taking a jump shot on the run, then mid-air changed his mind and threw a dime to the wrapping X attackman for an easy bucket. Wicked vision. He can get this done in first quarter for us.
Bets: Redwoods-Atlas Under 23.5, Bryan Costabile Over 1.5 points
Whipsnakes (-1.5) vs. Chaos
This seems like an easy case of one team trending upward and one team trending downward. The team trending upward is Chaos. The ‘Aos have had their core of NLL players back on the roster for two games. The first was a loss to the Waterdogs, where the Chaos looked too compact. It looked like they were trying to play box on the field, which doesn’t work very well when the defense has four long-poles. The second: a win where the Chaos had a better team feel and their box style offense looked like it had in the past.
The NLL core (who all live under the same roof in Buffalo) return after a two-week break and get to practice field together. The further we get from the NLL season, the more dialed I believe the Chaos will look. We also know they have that underdog, comeback DNA after a miraculous late season run to win the title last year. This team is trending up.
The Whips are trending down. I’ve heard Dan Alexander and the boys on Bet On Lacrosse podcast call them the “One-Goal Whips.” Even while sometimes outplaying their opponents, they’ve let the opposition hang around only to swoop in at the end and win. This luck ran out against the Waterdogs last week. The Whips were already missing Ty Warner and Michael Ehrhardt and Jake Bernhardt are listed as questionable as of Thursday’s injury report. I fear the stability of this team at this time to hold up against a Chaos team who is ready to surge.
I love the Chaos getting 1.5 points and think they have a good chance to win outright. To do that, they’ll need to score more than the Whips average of 11 goals per game (which I think the Whips can exceed given the Chaos defensive struggles). Even so, we are looking at a 12-11 game, minimum. The total is 22.5. This is an OVER play!
Bets: Chaos +1.5, Chaos vs. Whipsnakes Over 22.5
Cannons vs. Archers (-2.5)
I don’t have a good feel for this game given the lines presented. The Archers won 20-9 in an offensive clinic last time these two played. Do I think this exact history will repeat itself? Probably not. Can it be similar? Yes. Can the Cannons recharge the batteries over the break and come out with an underdog mentality in a revenge game? Possibly. A 2.5-goal spread given these uncertainties is playing with fire.
I do have an edge in the prop market though. BetMGM just released goalie save total props for the first time this week and PLL saves leader Nick Marrocco has the highest total at 15.5. Marrocco has single-handedly kept the Cannons in the game at times and has gone over this number only twice – once against the Waterdogs and once against the Chrome. This week, he is facing the league’s most efficient offense in the Archers. The Archers are second in the league in goals scored. However, they are sixth in shots taken and second to last (seventh) in possessions. This team converts. There won’t be a lot of shots that Marrocco sees and the ones he does see are going to be high percentage offensive looks. Not to mention last year’s MVP runner-up Grant Ament is expected to return after being listed as questionable on the injury report.
Bet: Nick Marrocco Under 15.5 Saves
Waterdogs vs. Chrome (-1.5)
Another example of one team trending up and another team trending down. Trending up is the Waterdogs. We’ve seen them lose big in week one. We saw them lose two heartbreakers in weeks two and three. Then, we saw back-to-back wins going into the PLL All-Star Break. This team has been operating with impressive offensive fluidity.
In the first weeks, we saw Michael Sowers attempting to put the team on his back and go one vs. six dodging from X. We still see those shaky moves, but recently we’ve seen him become an offensive contributor moving off ball. He’s able to weaponize his field IQ to draw attention from the defense in different ways. All-World goalie Dillon Ward is questionable this week after getting hit in the hand with a shot a few weeks ago, but we’ve seen Matt DeLuca trend upward this year and hold down a win against the Whips last game. I’d trust either of them in the net given the team chemistry and energy we are seeing from the Dogs.
The Chrome had nice wins in weeks one and two. Then, they were the Chromeback kids in weeks three and four, before suffering their first loss in week five. It was a good time for a break for this team. I would have liked the break more for their team if I didn’t see nine Chrome members get together for team Farrell and go get beat by TWENTY in the PLL All-Star Game. Not good energy.
Another important data point is that these teams played in week three. The Dogs were leading 14-12 with six minutes left in the fourth, only to collapse and lose 17-14. This felt like more of a Dog collapse than a Chrome masterpiece. We saw some untimely turnovers, ill-advised shots and a failed clear that handed the game (and the cover) to Chrome. Michael Sowers was also out for this game. Pro athletes don’t forget that feeling of crushing defeat, especially when it was only about a month ago. I believe in revenge games and the Waterdogs proved they have a vengeful mindset in week five against the Whips.
This could be a wakeup call for the Chrome, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see them come out angry. That’s what a real championship contender would do, but with +1.5 spreads hitting at 60% (12-for-18), a Waterdogs team trending upwards, and a revenge spot, my money is on the dogs.
Bet: Waterdogs +1.5
Those are my picks for this week. Let me know what you’re betting on and be sure to check out the Bet On Lacrosse podcast every week for more PLL bets.
