It’s time for another PLL Weekend Wager! Our picks went 2-1 last week, so let’s try and stay in the positive in week five. Here are my thoughts on each game this weekend.
Redwoods vs. Archers (-1.5)
The Archers come into this matchup boasting the league’s top-ranked offensive efficiency and second-ranked defensive efficiency. The Redwoods enter week five second-to-last in offensive efficiency and fifth in defensive efficiency. You would think that a hyper-efficient Archers team mops the floor with an inefficient Redwoods team, right? Maybe, not so much.
The Archers are dead last in faceoff percentage (35%), which puts them at a major disadvantage when it comes to number of possessions in a game. In order to compete, the Archers must make the most of each possession they have (offensive efficiency) and hold off their opponent, who will have the ball more than them. TD Ierlan, the most prolific NCAA faceoff specialist of all time, is struggling this year for TD standards (44%). That being said, it’s still very possible he takes advantage of his matchup with Justin Inacio, a rookie still transitioning from NCAA faceoff rules.
The Archers are 2-2. Their two wins are easy victories against bottom tier teams (Chaos, Cannons). Their two losses are both one-goal losses to top tier teams (Chrome, Atlas). I’m thinking the Archers are good enough to hang with the big boys, but Grant Ament being out and their faceoff struggles have left the Archers in the middle of the pack.
After starting the campaign winless, including the worst loss in PLL history from a scoring perspective, the Redwoods got their first win and followed it up by taking the undefeated Whipsnakes down to the wire. Are they turning a corner? Or did they get an easy win against the Replacement Chaos and then get up for a rivalry game? Too many questions all around with this matchup.
I lean Archers here, but I couldn’t find juice worth the squeeze. The best lines as I write this are Archers ML (-165) and Archers -1.5 (-120) on BetMGM. If I had better odds, I would be more interested in actually betting the Archers, but this Friday, my units will be safe and sound during game one.
Lean: Archers
Chrome vs. Atlas (-1.5)
Chrome has been the surprise of the year at 4-0. Let’s take a look at how they got there with a little commentary of what I imagine their feelings to be:
Week 1 – Shocking one-goal win against the Archers – “We are here to play!”
Week 2 – Deforestation of the Redwoods, 12-3 – “We are championship contenders!”
Week 3 – Comfortable three-goal win after trailing the Waterdogs in the fourth quarter – “We can come from behind!”
Week 4 – Incredible five-goal comeback against Cannons late in the fourth quarter with an OT winner – “We are UNBEATABLE!”
Unbeatable… until this week. Chrome are on a downward trend flying closer and closer to the sun as they meet Atlas this week. Atlas is certainly not a team that you can take your chances with. Trevor Baptiste is playing at an MVP level and will give even the Milkman a sour weekend.
Chrome are the new kids on the block, but Atlas have been on this block since last year and added some more dynamic pieces. Atlas was riding a little too high coming off of an average margin of victory of 7 goals per game in weeks one and two, only to take the L in week three against the Whipsnakes. They followed it up by winning a tough battle by one against the Archers. This Atlas team has been knocked off the hill this year and I think they have enough blood in their mouth to come out and knock off the downward trending Chrome. Vegas believes this too, as Atlas are favored over the undefeated Chrome.
Pick: Atlas ML
Chaos (-1.5) vs Cannons
Last week, the Chaos got the cavalry back from the NLL. Despite all the excitement, we correctly predicted an outright loss to the Waterdogs. I suspected it would take a bit of time and practice to integrate so many new pieces to the offense, and it did. My impression of the game last week is that the Chaos three righty and three lefty box-style offense was too compact. It allowed the Waterdogs defense to look as fast as they’ve ever been, flying around and collapsing on pick and rolls all over the field. The offense was not spaced out enough. It was too compact. Maybe it could have fit in, I don’t know, a box?
This is not a character flaw of the Chaos offense. I didn’t feel this way last year or as much in previous games this year. I think that even some of the most exciting players in the league need a few practices and a game or so to transition play styles from indoor to outdoor. For the Chaos that game they needed was last week.
This week they take on the struggling Cannons. A team that has lost three games in a row. A team that is comprised of an offense of solo players and two-man games (sixth in assisted goals and second in unassisted goals). A team that is averaging a league high 14.5 goals per game allowed.
I just don’t see how the Cannons can be a top competitor in this league. However, I have seen how the Chaos can be champions in this league – it just takes them a few practices to round into form.
Pick: Chaos ML
Whipsnakes (-1.5) vs Waterdogs
REVENGE GAME. First of the year. Unlike the Waterdogs motto (“every game is a revenge game”), I categorize a revenge game as a game against teams that have played each other already – an opportunity for the loser of the last matchup to get their revenge. An opportunity that I believe the Waterdogs will seize on Saturday.
The Whips and Dogs met in Charlotte during week two this year – a game that resulted in a 12-11 win by the Whipsnakes. This game started on a 6-1 first quarter run by the Waterdogs. They were playing an unsettled, backyard lacrosse-style offense and getting their shots early and often in the shot clock. The Whips D has been the best in the league, but this is where we saw them exploited the most.
This run was halted by first quarter injuries to faceoff specialist Jake Withers and LSM Chris Sabia. The injury to Withers forced 2022 Middie of the Year Zach Currier to take faceoffs and significantly reduced his role on offense, defense and transition. He went 2-for-21 at the stripe against Nardella. This mismatch allowed the Whips to gain possession, slow it down, and hit singles. The slow pace favored the Whips and tired out the Dogs’ defense, which was now also missing a pole (Sabia).
Since then, the Dogs lost another heartbreaker to the Chrome, where they blew a fourth quarter lead, then notched their first win against the Chaos. As referenced above, this was a transitioning Chaos team and the Waterdogs took advantage with a commanding nine-point win. There was a lot to like here.
First thing I noticed was Michael Sowers became a great complimentary piece. I love Sowers, but sometimes both the offense and defense can get mesmerized by his shifty dodges and the offense becomes too reliant on him. He also took some runs from the box and gave Kieran McArdle time to operate from behind. This was a great balance and put threats and mismatches all over the field. The next thing I loved was Connor Kelly both stretching the field and initiating dodges from different areas of the field. Doing both of these opens up opportunities for others.
The Whips’ statement win came against the Atlas in week three. Their defense stifled the Atlas’ movement offense. They followed this with a tight, one-goal win against rival Redwoods. Matt Rambo said after the game that Coach Stags told them to wake up at halftime and that they have been a second-half team all year.
This Waterdogs team knows it can hang with the Whips. They have been on an upward trajectory since their first matchup and have been perfecting parts of their game that they didn’t have in the previous matchup. I’m not sure the Whips can sleepwalk through the first half against a team they just beat up on; a team that wants revenge. We saw some fireworks in the first matchup, where a (borderline) clean hit on Michael Sowers sparked chirps and finger points at just about everyone on the Whips D. This is revenge in a pro league. A league where any given team can win any given weekend. The Dogs want it more.
Caesars has Waterdogs +1.5 at +105. While I think the Dogs win this, I’m going to put 0.5 unit on Waterdogs +1.5 and 0.5 unit on Waterdogs ML. This will give me a slight profit even if the Dogs lose by one. If you don’t play Caesars, I would adjust the unit size accordingly so you at least break even if the Whips win by a goal.
Pick: 0.5U Dogs +1.5, 0.5U Dogs ML
Those are my picks for this week. Let me know what you’re betting on and be sure to check out the Bet On Lacrosse podcast every week for more PLL bets.
