Weekend Wager: PLL Week 4

The “Weekend Wager” is back for the 2022 Premier Lacrosse League season! Let’s take a look at the big PLL matchups this week and which picks I like for week four.

Redwoods vs. Whipsnakes (-1.5)

While the Whips vs. Woods has been the premier rivalry of the PLL for the last three years, I haven’t been overly impressed with either team thus far. My favorite showing by the Woods was the first half of their first game when Jules Heningburg was at attack. He’s been the catalyst for the Woods’ best ball movement and I’d rather have him on the field more and dodge poles from down low than have him on the field less and still potentially draw long pole matchups. Yet, he hasn’t played much attack since week one. 

The Woods run more of a set six-on-six offense than a transition offense. Last week, they played a close game for 2.5 quarters against the Replacement Chaos before going on a run. Even during their run, it felt like way too many possessions ended in shot clock violations. Their slow, prodding dodges often resulted in not drawing slides, or drawing the slide, but pulling the ball back out in an attempt to get away from the double. This plays into the Whipsnakes’ defensive strengths. The Whipsnakes worst showing of the year was when they fell into a 6-1 first quarter hole to the Waterdogs in game two. The Waterdogs were running in transition and getting their shots off early in the shot clock – unorganized, backyard-style lacrosse. As the game progressed and the Whips won more faceoffs (due to the Jakes Withers injury), they were able to slow the game down, limit transition and come back to win. The Whips showed last week that they can stay cohesive against a motion-heavy Atlas offense as long as they can settle in with their defensive unit. I think Woods O vs. Whips D is the stylistic mismatch.

The Redwoods defense has been underperforming by their standards, and I would argue the Whips offense is underperforming for their standards. However, the Whips have been missing PLL and now NLL Hero Zeddy Ball Game, who returns this week. Even hungover from his Mammoth Championship, I think Zed Williams will be solid enough for a couple unassisted goals and have his gravity draw the attention of the defense.

Lean: Whipsnakes -1.5

Pick: Whipsnakes ML & Chrome ML Parlay

Cannons vs. Chrome (-1.5)

Yes, we are skipping ahead chronologically, but I gave my pick away already so I wanted to stay consistent. Chrome have been the most surprising team this year, launching up from +2000 preseason odds to a 3-0 start and +500 future odds. They have been so fun to watch on all sides of the ball – Connor Farrell is dominating the stripe, the defense looking fast AF (poles and shorties), the offense is led by exciting young guns, and Sean Sconone is filling the cage (the pro “People’s Goalie” I heard. )

The Cannons enter with a 1-2 record. Their only win was on opening weekend against the Waterdogs. This game started with Stephen Kelly winning almost every draw in the first half and the Cannons scoring at will against backup goalie Matt DeLuca. Kelly fell back down to earth in the second half, but it was too late for the Dogs. Kelly continued his fall by going 5/23 (21%) against Baptiste and the Atlas. Kelly bounced back with a career day, notching two points and going 70% from the stripe against a combination of Frankie Labetti (who?) and close defender Graeme Hossack in a 20-9 loss to the Archers.

With the season the Milkman is having, I think Kelly is more likely to go 21% than 70% on Saturday. Sconone is also a world away from Matt DeLuca, and I don’t think the Cannons can jump out to an early lead and repeat their performance from their sole win. I am the most suspect of the Cannons defense, which is averaging the most goals allowed per game (15.33) – no shade to Nick Marrocco, who seems to carry the team at times. The Archers picked them apart with ball movement and I’d expect the Chrome to pick up where Archers left off.

Lean: Chrome -1.5

Pick: Chrome ML & Whipsnakes ML Parlay

Chaos (-1.5) vs. Waterdogs

The reinforcements have arrived for both teams with the conclusion of the NLL season. The Waterdogs get NLL Finals MVP Dillon Ward back in cage and Josh Byrne, Dhane Smith, Chase Fraser and Ian MacKay return for the Chaos (Chris Cloutier and Max Adler were added to the PUP list). The line has the Chaos favored at -1.5 and -150 on the moneyline. This tells us the books expect the Chaos to get their horses back and get their first win against another winless team. 

I don’t think that’s how it’s going down on Friday night. Yes, the boys from Banditland are great players and some of my favorites to watch, but we’re talking about integrating four pieces into an offense with one day of practice. Even the Miami “Heatles” needed some practice and game runs before they could completely gel. Not to mention, they had to endure the extended wear and tear of a full NLL season and a heartbreaking game three loss at home. Yes, the boys will want blood from Ward, but will their emotions be stuck in the NLL rather than focused on the PLL? They might know what is at stake with the PLL game, but will they FEEL it?

The loser of this game will be 0-4 and has a solid chance of missing the playoffs. The Dogs have lost their last two PLL games in heart breaking fashion. They’ve battled this season together and they’re trending upward. They know what is at stake and this is their sole focus. They have no shreds of heartbreak, anger and focus aimed at another league or one player in particular (aka Bandits and Dillon Ward). 

The interesting piece for the Dogs is NLL MVP Dillon Ward returning to the field game. Sure it’s different, and sure he might be hungover from partying all week, but would you rather have Matt DeLuca (42% save percentage and 15 goals per game average) or a hungover, confident Dillon Ward? As a men’s league veteran, I can tell you from experience that the best solution to a hangover on gameday is a few cold ones before the game. Get Wardo a couple of Coors Lights and go get that first win. The mountains are blue, woof woof.

Pick: Waterdogs ML

Archers vs. Atlas (-1.5)

We see our highest total of the year set at 25.5 on most sportsbooks. What does this tell you? It tells you the books think this has the potential to be the highest scoring game of the year, and rightfully so, as the two most prolific offenses battle this weekend.

The Archers are averaging 15.67 goals per game and the Atlas are averaging 14. That’s 29.67 on average. So why isn’t the total set at 29.5? Because with an average total line this season of 23.5, most bettors would bet the under, leaving the book exposed if the under does hit. If there’s anything I learned, it is to not run away from outlier totals, but run toward them. I believe that sometimes a book may predict a total much higher or lower than they post the line, but have to play balance on the risk exposure see-saw. We’re going to be on the right side of that see-saw this week.

Fortunately, Caesars Sportsbook has been fairly different when posting their lines compared to the other sportsbooks. This benefits bettors who have access to Caesars this week as they have posted a total of 24.5, which is even better for us betting the over in this game.

As far as the side, I am imploring the buy low (Atlas), sell high (Archers). We’ve seen how high the Archers can ride, popping bottles and proceeding to go on a losing streak. We’ve also seen the Atlas go 4-0 following a loss dating back to 2021.

Lean: Atlas ML

Pick: Over 24.5 (Play up to 25.5)

Those are my picks for this week. Let me know what you’re betting on and be sure to check out the Bet On Lacrosse podcast every week for more PLL bets.