Weekend Wager: PLL Week 11

We’re back with another PLL Weekend Wager, where I give my picks and rationale for each! Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@BiagiBrandon) where I post all my plays during the week to secure the best odds before they move.

Chrome (-1.5) vs. Redwoods

We open the final week of the regular season with two teams who have secured a playoff spot already. The Chrome currently sit in second and can realistically fall as low as third. The Redwoods, in all likelihood, are locked into the sixth seed. These can change if the Redwoods beat the Chrome by 20+, but we’re being realistic here.

Chrome are coming off an 11-9 win over the Cannons. Cannons covered the +2.5 spread, but the Chrome were up 5-1 just nine minutes into the game. They let the Cannons come back a bit, but it never truly felt like the Cannons could win. Chrome were in cruise control.

The Woods are coming off their best win of the season, 14-12 over Waterdogs. The Dogs were on a 5-game win streak and the Woods pulled off a statement win, headlined by Rob Pannell’s eight points, to clinch their playoff spot. The Woods were win and in and the Dogs had already clinched, so motivation and energy favored the Woods and they delivered.

This week, the tables have turned for the Redwoods. They are almost guaranteed the sixth seed, so not as much to play for. They also suffered a crushing blow by losing defensive leader Eddy Glazener to a lower body injury. Glaze will definitely be out this week, but he could return for the playoffs – which is where the Redwoods will be looking. I’m seeing this as a classic look-ahead/letdown spot for the Woods. Not to mention, the Chrome have the league’s second best defensive unit, a balanced offense and Woods will be missing their defensive play caller. Chrome -1.5 (-105 on DraftKings) is a safe bet.

I also have a lean in the player prop department: Jordan MacIntosh over 1.5 points. MacIntosh has gone over this number in five of eight games this season and will be playing the Woods defense, which is second to last in defensive efficiency and missing Glazener. I really hammered the player prop market in the two recent weeks and saw both my biggest winning week and my biggest losing week. Unless there is something I really love, I’ll stay away from the variance and take the sure things as I see them.

Pick: Chrome -1.5

Lean: Jordan MacIntosh Over 1.5 Points

Archers (-1.5) vs. Waterdogs

To me, this will be the most interesting game of the weekend. The Archers currently sit in third, but can realistically get as high as the second seed or as low as the fifth seed: the most variance for any team. The Waterdogs are currently at five and can realistically land somewhere between the third seed and fifth seed.

The part that makes this particularly interesting is that the top four teams will participate in the PLL Championship Series – a week-long Sixes tournament that will take place in the offseason. It is my understanding that players will be paid for this tournament and will be monetarily incentivized to win the tournament. I don’t know what the dollar figures are, but I’m sure any pro lacrosse player would want an opportunity to play again for more money, right? This is the first installation of the Championship Series, so we will see what the true motivation is on Saturday, but I’m imagining both teams would want to win for a bid to the Series and also to pick up steam going into the playoffs.

That said, the Waterdogs lost last week at the perfect time for the long game. The Dogs started the season by losing three straight, then won five in a row. They needed a piece of humble pie before going into the playoffs. Going into the playoffs, you want to be feeling good, but not feeling invincible. After tasting a little of their own blood, I expect the Dogs to be fired up and get the train back on the tracks before the playoffs.

The Archers, on the other hand, just beat the Chaos for the second time this season. It was a one-point game going into the fourth, but the Archers dominated the following quarter and easily won 11-8. This game could have been higher scoring, but Blaze Riorden notched 19 saves for the Chaos. Adam Ghitelman only registered six saves and had me asking the TV: “Why aren’t the Chaos shooting more?” This week, Ghitelman gets to face a Waterdogs team that has more shots than any team in the league, 20 more shots than the next team to be exact.

The Archers have also not beaten a team with a winning record this season. Their wins are against the Redwoods, Cannons twice and Chaos twice. The Waterdogs are better than all of these teams and are a legit contender in my eyes. I like the Dogs to win outright, but Gamblor the Gambling God has graced us by giving the Dogs a goal and a half (+1.5) at -120 on Caesars and a plus-money moneyline at +127. With what we’re given, I’m splitting my play into 0.6 unit on Dogs +1.5 and 0.4 unit on the Dogs ML. This way, even if the Dogs lose by one, I still turn a small profit.

Given the motivations in this game, I think this game will be closer to a playoff atmosphere – playoff adjacent. The total is 24.5. PLL playoff games all time are 13-5 to the under of 24.5. Not all playoff lines have been 24.5, but the totals in playoff games rarely eclipse this line. Expect defenses to be playing hard and finish under the total here.

Picks: Waterdogs +1.5 (0.6U), Waterdogs ML (0.4U), Under 24.5

Cannons vs. Whipsnakes (-2.5)

This game might have my favorite play of the weekend and it is the last place Cannons to cover against the first place Whipsnakes. The Whips have locked up the top seed and a first round bye. The Cannons, while in last, still have a chance to make the playoffs. The Cannons need a win, a Chaos loss, and a net goal differential between the two games of Cannons +3.

“So you’re saying there’s a chance?!”

Cannons will be fighting for their lives while the Whips have nothing to play for. I do not think the Whips will rest their players, but I’m not sure exactly how seriously they will take it. That being said, a 75% effort Whips team could still probably beat the Cannons, but Barstool posted the biggest line of the 2022 season at Cannons +3.5. I immediately put two units on this, but it only lasted a day and the best we have now is Cannons +2.5 at -105 on DraftKings. I would still be excited to place one unit on this line, given that +2.5 underdogs are 9-4 the last two years – not even including the extra motivation.

Pick: Cannons +2.5

Chaos vs. Atlas (-1.5)

This game is the biggest question mark for me. By the time we get here, we’ll know what the Chaos playoff chances are – they could be 100% IN before the first draw or they could be fighting for their lives. The Atlas will have a good idea of where they can fall and this will determine their motivation as well. Without knowing what is at stake, I would not be interested in placing any bets before the game starts. This could change after the Whips-Cannons game, or I might wait to see if there are any live lines that I like – something that I am making a point to follow moving forward.

The pick I have comes in the game props section of DraftKings: Over1.5 two-pointers. The Chaos are known for having their poles (LSM and close) cross the line hunting two-bombs. They are also facing Jack Concannon, who is a wizard on the doorstep, but struggles from afar. The Atlas have allowed the most two-point goals this season. Conversely, the Atlas have also scored the most two-point goals this season. They’ll be facing reigning MVP Blaze Riorden, but he’s currently listed as questionable and even if he’s good to go, I expect them to still get some shots off on him.

Pick: Over 1.5 Two-Point Goals

Those are my picks for this week. Let me know what you’re betting on and be sure to check out the Bet On Lacrosse podcast for more PLL bets.