It’s time for another PLL Weekend Wager, where I give my picks and rationale for each! Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@BiagiBrandon) where I post all my plays during the week to secure the best odds before they move.
Archers (-1.5) vs. Atlas
The league’s two most dynamic offenses meet again in this week four rematch. Last time, I took over 24.5. The game started with nine goals in the first quarter and I thought we had easy money. Yet, only 10 goals were scored in the remaining three quarters to lose my only bet of that weekend. This time around, we see a season high 25.5 on the board. I love these two offenses, but I can’t bring myself to get hurt again on the over when these two teams face off with the highest total of the season on the board. I am staying away from the total.
I do, however, like the Atlas as moneyline underdogs this week. The Atlas are 5-0 dating back to last year in games following a loss, with an average margin of victory of three goals in those games. Coach Ben Rubeor has instilled an attitude where a loss makes this team angry and I’m expecting an aggressive rebound here.
The Archers returned their 2021 Attackman of the Year Grant Ament last game. Ament makes everyone around him better, but the Archers offense had found a flow without him and it looked like it took some time for the team to readjust to his return.
The last place Cannons had this at a one goal game with 10 minutes left in the fourth before an offensive explosion easily sealed a 17-12 Archers win. The Archers do have the ability to go on Golden State Warriors-style offensive runs, but this one felt more like a last place Cannons defense folding when they needed it most.
We’ve seen how high the Archers can ride after a win in the past, and they might be feeling good about a five-goal win and a 4th quarter demolition. Ament said after the game “probably one of my worst professional games, and we put up 17,” Sure this is encouraging, but no team should be feeling too high and encouraged when they take the field with an angry Atlas team.
The one caveat is the injury to MVP Candidate Trevor Baptiste. He is listed as questionable. If Baptiste plays, the Atlas will have their best chance at winning, but the odds could swap to Atlas becoming the favorites, and thus shorter odds. If Trevor doesn’t play, we’ll see Syracuse rookie Jakob Phaup. Phaup went only 38% against his college coach and NCAA legend, TD Ierlan, but I didn’t think his performance looked horrible given his opponent. He will be facing off against fellow rookie Justin Inacio, which will be more of a fair fight.
I also have two player props in this game that make even me a little queezy. The first is Bryan Costabile under 2.5 points. This pains me because Costabile hit over 1.5 points for us just last week, adding a hat-trick and an apple (four points) to his season stats. I would love to think that this is the turning point for Costabile, but last week was his first time eclipsing two points since opening weekend. This week, his primary matchup will be with Jared Conners: recipient of the 2021 NCAA McLaughlin Award for most outstanding midfielder in the country – and he did it as a longpole.
The second is Marcus Holman under 2.5 Points. Holman has only eclipsed two points twice in six games this year (33%). He hasn’t had all-world feeder Grant Ament behind the cage, so he has an added advantage this week. However, looking at the 2021 season where he had a full season with the Attackman of the Year, Holman has only gone over two points three times in nine games (still 33%). I love this play for a price of +135.
Picks: Atlas ML, Marcus Holman Under 2.5 Points, Bryan Costabile Under2.5 Points
Whipsnakes (-1.5) vs. Chrome
In the Whipsnakes and Chrome’s first matchup of the year, we will be looking towards the under with the total set at 23.5. The Whips have allowed the least goals of any team this year, while the Chrome have allowed only two goals more, which is good enough for second least. Contrasted with the amount of shots they’ve faced, these numbers place the Whips at second in the league in defensive efficiency, while the Chrome are right behind them at third.
On the offensive side, the Whips have been struggling for their standards. Until last week, the Whips never broke the 12-goal mark. The Chrome were held to just 10 goals against a Waterdogs team that suffered three field player injuries during the game.
Also in this defensive battle, I like Whipsnakes goalie Kyle Bernlohr to go over 11.5 saves. Bernlohr is averaging 12 saves per game and has fallen below 11.5 only twice this year – once in week one, when the replacement Chaos only fired off 16 shots on goal, and last week, where the full strength Chaos converted some extremely acrobatic and unlikely goals. Expect the cornerstone of this team in 2022 to have a successful rebound and get some popcorn shots resulted from rock solid defensive play.
Note: Since betting Kyle Bewrnlohr Over 11.5 saves, the line has moved up to 12.5. I probably would NOT play this myself, so proceed with caution
Picks: Whipsnakes vs. Chrome Under 23.5, Kyle Bernlohr Over 11.5 Saves
Waterdogs (-1.5) vs. Cannons
The handicap of this game is particularly difficult due to the injuries on the Waterdogs sideline. Captain Steve DeNapoli is listed as questionable, but fellow SSDM Christian Scarpello has been ruled out. Sharpshooter Ryan Brown is officially out and fellow attackman Michael Sowers is listed as questionable. 2021 all-star Mikie Schlosser, who hasn’t played in weeks, is listed as questionable, so that is encouraging. Either way, it is hard to predict the outcome of a game when we will see a different lineup work together. Ethan Walker is a more than capable replacement for Brown, but if Sowers is out too, this offense will need to find a new identity. I also think the Cannons have the ability steal another game at some point, and a banged up Waterdogs team coming off an emotional OT win could be a let-down candidate.
Overall, if Sowers plays, I think Waterdogs -1.5 is a viable option due to past performance and team trajectory. If he is out, I would stay away from the side and watch to see if the Cannons show some signs of life this week and shake things up in the PLL standings.
The player prop I’ve identified for this game is unfortunately an under play on one of my favorite new players to watch this year – Asher Nolting Under 2.5 points at +105 on BetMGM. Excluding a six-point game against the Chrome, Nolting has been averaging 1.8 points per game. The only other time he eclipsed 2.5 goals was when Lyle Thompson was out against the Atlas and Nolting got the lion’s share of offensive initiations. Asher has been a great second option behind Thompson for the Cannons, but defenses have been respecting him as such. Expect to see a strong pole like two-time All Star Ben Randall draw the physical assignment.
Note: The juice on Nolting has fallen to +100 since I placed my bet, but I would still play it at this number.
Pick: Asher Nolting Under 2.5 Points
Redwoods (-1.5) vs. Chaos
Where do you look when you have two unreliable teams? Player Props. Between the pipes, specifically, for this matchup. I like betting over for both Blaze Riorden (11.5) and Jack Kelly (10.5) on Sunday.
BetMGM has reigning MVP Blaze Riorden set at a save total of 11.5, which feels criminally low. To put this in perspective, Cannons Goalie, Nick Marrocco, had a save line of 15.5 last week. Blaze has only gone below 11.5 saves once this season, and it was against the Archers’ top offense in the league. Furthermore, if you look at Riorden’s 37 PLL games, you’ll find that he’s failed to record at least 12 saves only TWICE! And in both those games, he still managed to make 10 saves.
This week he is facing the team with the lowest shooting percentage and lowest offensive efficiency. This is enough for me to risk two units on the over (-115) – my first two-unit play of the year.
Note: I placed this on Wednesday, and right before publishing, the line has moved to 13.5 (-125). I would NOT play at this number.
The save total for Jack Kelly is set at 10.5. In Kelly’s two starts, he has had 13 saves a piece with a save percentage of 55%. He is facing a Chaos offense that is second to last in offensive efficiency and averaging 40 shots per game since their NLL guys have been back. Let’s see Kelly continue to find his groove as Redwoods starter and get at least 11 for us.
Note: The line for Kelly has moved up to 11.5 (-115). I would still play this number.
Picks: Blaze Riorden OVER 11.5 Saves (2U), Jack Kelly OVER 10.5 Saves
Bonus Goal Parlay
For the first time, both DraftKings and BetMGM are giving bettors to the opportunity to bet the goal scoring prop at multiple levels. For one top scorer on each team (Teat, Manny, Nichtern, Rambo, Thompson, Sowers, Byrne, and Heningburg), bettors may place over/under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, or 4.5 goals at their respective odds. The presents an opportunity to build a ladder. If you like one of those players to score a number of goals, you can split your units or bet multiple units in increments up the ladder.
I’m taking this opportunity to build a parlay of three of these players all scoring Over 1.5 Goals in their respective games this weekend. I am using Teat -340 (83% this season), Thompson -800 (100% this season) and Byrne -190 (three goals in each of his last two games). Individually, these are not worth the juice, but combining these in a parlay bring my odds to +122: a worthy play.
Parlay: Jeff Teat Over 1.5 Goals + Lyle Thompson Over 1.5 Goals + Josh Byrne Over 1.5 Goals
Those are my picks for this week. Let me know what you’re betting on and be sure to check out the Bet On Lacrosse podcast for more PLL bets.
